I have been one of those who became steadily disillusioned by the way President Jonathan has run the country. But truly speaking, the Boko Haram menace would have been equally too hard for any other Nigerian President. That one can admit readily.
There was a precedent of amnesty for militants, which conveyed weakness and emboldened militants. The recipients of the pre-existing amnesty programs are the President's kinsmen, some of whom have landed huge contracts worth billions under this Presidency. With that in place, the President must not be seen not to extend amnesty to militants from other parts of the country.
Further, the whole Boko Haram uprising was disingenuously linked to some agitation for rotational politics. So, it was political from day one, despite the bloody ramifications we see so often as churches and other public places are bombed.
In addition to the above limitations, the President has not had good advisers or the right staff who could produce results for him in the effort to defeat Boko Haram. Rather than assure the President that the militants would be defeated, these advisers got the him to fear instead that he was surrounded by terrorist sympathizers even within his own cabinet. That was really not the right place to have the President. The confusion among the President's advisers became so palpable when the National Security Adviser pointed his fingers at the President's own party for the cause of the troubles; and soon got fired for that.
When President Jonathan escalated the fight against Boko Haram in 2011 with massive deployment of troops in some Northern States, though a legally questionable measure, I sincerely hoped that it would be a quick and lightening military operation and that the soldiers would return to the barracks. However, when after the soldiers have been in the fields for over two years without any measurable victory, it is quite troubling to catch the President placing so much reliance on further and more extended deployment of troops.
The impression that is left in many keen observers' minds is that this is the beginning of Nigeria's second civil war. Or even worse, this is a mixture of civil war and a defensive war against external aggression. Make no mistake about it: the militants are equipped and they seem to have bases close to Nigeria's borders with two poor countries. It means there will be action along those international borders.
Furthermore, this war is going to test one of Nigeria's institutions more than it has been tested in modern times. Nigerian soldiers would be relied upon to mount effective defence of Nigeria against a determined foe that believes in suicide operations. If Nigerian Army is as corrupt as other Nigerian institutions, then our soldiers would be roundly defeated. But are our soldiers corrupt or have they been immunized against the rampant corruption elsewhere in Nigeria?
The odds are pretty much unfavorable for the President. He has tough choices to make. Many, including me initially, had questioned the manner in which he declared this new round of State of Emergency. Rather than go it the way the constitution clearly envisaged, he has a bizarre situation where the elected civilian officials of the affected states are to stay in office performing "their constitutional duties" with soldiers in their streets imposing and enforcing dusk-to-dawn lockdowns. That is so self-contradictory that it redefines the word, state of emergency.
Under analysis, one begins to see that the President was merely manifesting the fact that he had limited choices. His state of emergency is yet to be approved by the Senate in order of it to endure. And the Senate could just kill it. Secondly, because of the mix with politics, the President had to thread carefully to avoid being the one that united his own opponents.
If prayers can do it, I would pray hard for all this to be resolved soon and for some semblance of normalcy to return to this country. But if the brain were to govern the heart, then one can very well see that we are now in a second civil war. So much to worry about, indeed.
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